Singapore fs

Back to the Future- Prof. Hank Pruden on 150808

2008-08-04T23:06:00.002+08:00

Guess what... i'm marking this on my blog and itouch on this event that i'm going to attend this month :P..

Sounds exciting indeed... What makes this exciting is i have not a clue of what "Wyckoff based" method is... i heard about Chaos Theory and other TA, but never in my life Wyckoff.

http://www.hankpruden.com/biography.html

Quoted from Prof Hank website:
Wyckoff's Investment Theory
.....Wyckoff believed that the action of the market itself was all that was needed for intelligent, scientific trading and investing. The ticker tape revealed price, volume and time relationships that were advantageously captured by charts.

Comparing waves of buying and selling on the bar chart reveals the growing strength of demand or supply. With the aid of schematics of accumulation or distribution, the speculator is able to make informed decisions about the present position and probable future trend of a market. The figure chart is added to project the probable extent of a price movement.

Wyckoff also revealed how to interpret the intentions of the major interests that shape the destiny of stocks and how to follow in the footsteps of these sponsors at the culmination of bullish or bearish trading ranges.

Lesson learnt from Brandon Wendell 010808

2008-08-04T20:12:00.003+08:00

It was a memorable moment, understudy from Brandon Wendell. Ok, his birthday is 0808xx, sorry cannot help it.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=799994115
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=800013128
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=800012038
Will post Brandon Cashflow talk later in the week..

Brandon has a trading style that is just like me... very impatient and overtrade. However, he is much better than me, of course, as he is a master trading... He is full of confidence, and cutting loss at the slightest move against his direction.. When he make mistake, he quickly admit it and move on... If forex is not his day, then it's stock... wow... Learned lots of things from him... Must commit myself to use what is being taught... Have great trading tips from him in gage

Being a gal is always sentimental... when something bad happened to me, it always imprint on me... no matter how hard i try to let go, it still stays there... that's why i must learn how to suffer and how to let go... must let go and success will be within grasp... i can make it... :)

A story to tell

2008-07-14T23:06:00.002+08:00

Having to work in the construction industry for the past 1 year plus, i have learned valuable lesson through suffer, agony and hardship. You know how construction company looks like, tough men with lots of pride and ego. Nothing to learn here.

There was this person, i told him that oil price is going to go up 1 year ago. Do you know what's his response? Oh, crude oil should be where it is today, high... Eventually, this has lead to many disaster and cost cutting throughout the world. There were even US #1 bank being closed down, due to the sub-prime credit crunch. All because of oil.... why? Crude has a inverted correlation with USD. that's why...
Lesson learned here: Always trust yourself and your instinct. I really went berserk when crude just moving up.. The worst thing is, i don't trust myself enough to trade crude oil.. why should i care about what a nobody discussing of crude, when i even know what's going on...

Lesson #2 that i learned at site: Always believe in something and you will achieve it. There were this senior citizen, who is so active that i am starting to admit him. He is living as if today is his last day on earth, striving to achieve the best he can everyday. I used to chicken out and giving excuses for not even attempting to try. Guess what, that someone has taught me to go try it, and push me into joining triathon. I really never think i could finish the mini, but, eventually, i did finish the whole race.

"I need my mojo?", do you think mojo can perform miracle. I guess negativity had embedded in me, due to asian culture & surrounding, putting a full stop without even trying. By withdrawing all those bits and pieces of negativity, my trade has improved from worst to better... doubling, no tripling my account size. :)

Need to be strong, and make a great differences in life...

temporary parking...

2008-07-03T11:57:00.001+08:00

www.fxbeach.com
www.OilTradingBlog.com
www.GoldTradingBlog.com
www.CrudeOilTradingBlog.com

Goal Achievement

2008-06-20T18:23:00.001+08:00

After few months tryout on course, there is no guarantee to rip the reward that you wanted... Guess have to try harder to achieve the goal....

Back to Basic

2008-04-17T09:31:00.004+08:00

It's been so long that i enter any post in my blog. Guess when the volatility is high, i tend to glue in front of pc, just looking at the charts.. that's really funny...

What have i been doing lately? Not much improvement, except on my routine... looks at charts all day.. You might think this is nuts, well yes, this is indeed nuts.

In order to gain greater height, sacrifice need to be made. Guess what, I attended FX training session and the trainer is Ed Ponsi. It was great learning experience for me. :)

Do check out his CNBC talk below:
Aussie-Dollar Parity?
Growth vs. Inflation
Charting US Bellwethers
Capitalizing on Volatility
Weak Earnings from US
Next Key Level for Oil

Sometimes, when someone doing something repetitively, you tend to do something robotic. The bad part is, if it's long term doing the right way, it means that there will be no improvement in strategy and lifestyle.

I guess after attending this course, i tend to look at things at a different prospect. Essence of quality trade, rather than volume trading. Quality vs Quantity.. Making trading experience indifference.

Hope that this will be my path to be a millionaire one day. I'm not greedy, just having a long term goal. For now, 2-5% gain for the month doing this Quality trade. Hold a trade for months until goals have been reached.

Chinese New Year Flash

2008-01-30T20:33:00.001+08:00

http://xinshanjie.com/flash/view.php?id=2200

http://xinshanjie.com/flash/view.php?id=1682

http://www.123greetings.com/events/chinese_new_year/family/index.html

Christmas & Happy New Year

2007-12-22T22:14:00.000+08:00

First of all, i would like to wish everyone i know a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
http://gpsinformation.info/main/merryxmas.swf
http://www.stumbleupon.com/demo/?review=1#url=http://flash.freditm.net/marry_christmas/marry_christmas.swf
http://www.gfes.tpc.edu.tw/board/abc-song/merrychristmas.swf
http://www.angelfire.com/mt/jdhardball/images/xmasjoke.swf
http://www.zippyvideos.com/3996784146378016/rockfords_xmas_video_06wmt/

Forex market is truely amazing indeed. In comparision between last year and this year, the range that most currency is trading goes way beyond last year trend. Global prices around the world kept escalating, what can i say, what can i say.......

GBP currently has a bearish momentum, and dropped to the lowest due to the UK current account deficit widened to GBP 20 billion vs 11.4 billion. Guess GBP is not the only country that suffer from deficit after all... :D

My overall t-bills plan worked after all. Less maintenance, no charges and higher interest rate when compared with fixed deposit. Hmm... i need to retune my plan so that it will be improved year after year... :D

Rough Sea Ahead

2007-10-26T22:00:00.000+08:00

It's almost end of the year, and the sea is getting rougher and rougher with each passing day. Everyone is talking and having long speech on the rates and the current economy situation. Guess no single body intervention would influence on the forex market. G7 summit did influence a bit, but then, US market condition is so bad that currently it is moving on a much higher level than before.

I really like this: Peter Borish, former second-in-command for Paul Tudor Jones, lays bare the only concern a trader must have: "Price makes news, not the other way around. A market is going to go where a market is going to go".

Non farm payroll will be here soon, hope that USD would strengthen against all currency. And pray that Ben Benanke rumour about cutting of bps point on the interest rate doesn't come true at all...

What's happening!!!!

2007-10-17T20:25:00.000+08:00

Man, it's sure hot nowadays with Gold and Oil reaching the highest level in decade. Yaow, oil is almost reaching U$90 per barrel, currently trading at around U$88. Gold is moving strongly up up up, as if 3rd War World is approaching. Guess the whole world will be suffering from inflation.

To make matter worst, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also giving comments on the market slump, and nothing positively to add on. Well, guess USD will be staying weak for the time being.

Oct Non Farm Payroll

2007-10-06T23:17:00.000+08:00

Ok, a very short one:

Overall the report is better than expected. However, at the end of Friday closing, the market still favouring weakness in USD. Oh well... Better luck next month.

Interesting Legal Term

2007-09-04T22:48:00.000+08:00

Anton Piller
An Anton Piller order allows plaintiff to enter someone else's premises, halt all activities, make a search - for days if necessary - and then seize all incriminating evidence found. This "draconian" nature are only granted when plaintiff can prove it had an "extremely strong prima facie" case of a civil cause of action.

Suddenly, i'm a great fan of Nominated MP Siew Kum Hong. :) Love his flair of English.

Complete stranger

2007-09-04T22:24:00.000+08:00

Gosh, I am now a complete stranger to this forum..... Where have all my days gone!!! What about the resolution being set for this year... Ahhh.......

Seriously, I have been doing research, until that Odex saga hit me. Yup, i'm one of those "Otaku" who got the dreadful letter from Odex. It has been a really hotted debate on this Intellectual Property, and i personally find it as a "Scam" out for getting money from people. The saga is not over yet, however, things started to get much better with majority of Singapore objecting towards this.

Holy crab, wasted 2 months... preparing for legal pursue, if the needs arise... All for nothing. Hopefully, it will stay that way. Guess, I will be heading towards "Streaming" rather than "downloading". I don't like "Streaming", but right now, I don't think I would even have any choice, right.... :(

Back to Market... It will be an exciting market to trade for the 2nd half of the month. Ahh... I wanted to resign from my job, but, i guess, i should gather all my energy towards donating to the market, and trying to make the mark on it. Will Fed interfere with the current economic standing of the US market? I guess we will have to wait until this Friday on the NFP right? Cool... Keeping my fingers crossed at my back. :)

Mental Mantras

2007-06-11T19:00:00.000+08:00

Gosh, people are getting real smarter with each passing day... Mortgage Carry-Trade Insanity. Yup, i did think of it for a long time, but never do anything about it. So, basically, i'm that stupid and a dreamer only... ha ha.. Maybe, it's the attitude of not liking to take risk.

Let's Play Ball

2007-06-04T19:30:00.000+08:00

Having a 9-5 job is real tough, without much freedom and getting a real pain in the ass once in a while. Ha ha ha.... Guess i must have that "Energizer" attitude at my work place. Ok, no more drailing in sorrowness, let's play ball...

Well, this week is a very interesting week in the FX market, so must do lots of homework. Details listing as below:

05.06.07
13:00 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision
14:00 United States ISM Non-Manufacturing (May)

06.06.07
11:45 European Monetary Union ECB Interest Rate Decision
12:30 European Monetary Union Trichet Speaks at ECB Monthly News Conference

07.06.07
11:00 United Kingdom BOE Interest Rate Decision

NFP, NFP....

2007-06-02T23:25:00.000+08:00

Yes, u got it right.. Non Farm Payroll is yesterday. And, the saddess thing is that i missed the whole action.

Oh well, I learned something in return, "Kokam" http://www.eyojak.com/products/kokam/kokam_syrup.htm
http://www.chow.com/ingredients/245

Wesak Day

2007-05-31T09:36:00.000+08:00

It's a holiday... Finally for me to catch up with the market. Kind of a cool feeling. :)

Forex link

2007-05-27T22:11:00.000+08:00

Ok, I'm putting this in for a short period:

http://free-forex-ebooks.blogspot.com/

Lost in Space

2007-05-27T21:13:00.000+08:00

It seems nowadays that, somewhere, somehow, somewhat that i'm totally lost in space due to hectic project work life. Maybe, too much concentration on work and study, ended up with some brain dead scenario. Just like a walking zombi, with a lifeless soul. Thank God that my exam is over for now. The best part that i really look forward to, is to assist my friend on a research paper: Corporate Governance. Reorganising on my life and path is the most crucial things for me to do within this month.

Sometimes, i felt real silly that i concentrate too much in my contract work, at the end of the day will result in "NOTHING". Just imagine, working in contract work, without having any appreciation, or a good support. All i get is being blame for this and that. Maybe, everyone is not having faith in me, so i decided not to spend too much time on it, except my assigned working hour. If i make a mistake, i can admit it. But not, being blame for something which is rootless or with no substance. Sometimes, i felt sorry for the person who introduce me for the job, as i didn't work hard for it (week 21 May 2007 assignment). I need to have a life too. Things are not as it seems sometimes, it's complicated.

Ok, no more drilling of my sorrowness and sadness, but let's look at the brighter side of my life:

Beginning of the year, i strategize to place in T-bills. Really reap the rewards, but than, really much better than the ordinary funds that is in the market. Hmm... i must really think of a good path, which is better than Robert Kiyosaki.

The most amazing thing that ever happened to me is that, most of my FX friends want me to go back in the market, and enjoy on the market roller coaster ride, and fishing for pips. Thanks to Zeus for showing me the latest model of "private Boeing plane". Really amaze me, and prompted me to work even harder to strive for personal success.

Latest Motto: Always believe in yourself, if you don't, no one will, as everyone is selfish in their personal way.

Bonds Fall, Crude oil rose

2007-03-24T10:20:00.000+08:00

Even though FOMC announced this week that rates would maintain the same, yesterday announcement of increase in Home Sales sent US 10 year bonds fell by selling lower, due to investor speculation that Fed would cut rates soon.

Bonds usually rise on economic weakness and fall on strength, so it is safe to say that traders took the unexpectedly positive housing report as a major positive for the economy. A weak housing sector contributed to an economic slowdown in the U.S. over the second half of 2006, and traders have been focused on all housing reports for signs of continued weakness or a rebound. (Extracted from Futures Market Recap)

Crude oil rose nearly 1%, on geopolitical tensions stemming from Iran. Tensions in the Middle East have risen since Iran seized 15 British armed servicemen, who were conducting military operations in the Persian Gulf. Iranian-linked geopolitical tensions helped to drive the price of crude oil to record highs last summer, when crude reached about $80 a barrel. Crude fell over 30% from those record highs before bouncing on cold weather and supply issues. Natural gas fell about 0.6% on more signs of warm weather, and speculation of less demand. (Extracted from Futures Market Recap)

Getting engine started

2007-03-24T09:47:00.000+08:00

It's seems so long that i didn't blog, wonder where would i start off... hmm... Practically, i'm busy starting of this new year, with new agenda and new target to achieve. Somehow, along the way, events and things don't happen according to my blueprint. That's why things need to be review on a monthly basis.

Basically, i didn't manage to trade much in the first quarter of this year. First, there was the New Year, then Chinese New Year, then changing of new job with new roles and responsibilities.. Sometimes, i really puzzled at how TIME really fly, without me knowing it. Once in a while, i do check on the FX market, to see how's the overall market sentiments.

This whole month of March, my internet connection really giving me a lot of problem. After some checking and forensic analysis, it was due to my Modem giving me problem. Thank God this is now fixed.

Starting next Sunday, it will be an embarkment of 2nd Quarter of this year. 1st Qtr, i strategize that i park my money in T-bills, as it is a zero risk with reasonable return. Guess what, 3 months Singapore T-bills return dropped from 3.1% to 2.5%, this is indeed a huge gap of dropping. I haven't turn to Bonds yet cause bonds need some study and research.. Kinda like a long term investment with at least 1 - 5 years. The one thing i don't like bonds is that, bonds needs to pay commission or some handling fees plus it is a long term with reacting towards the interest rate fluctuation.

Should i seek salvation towards FX?? Good question indeed... I was really eager to trade on 1 Qtr, then, last year liquidity for Jan is good, and turned kinda illiquid in Feb and Mar. Well, my good friend Zeus was saying that 1 Qtr of this year seems to be good compared to last year. Therefore, I'm really eager and excited towards going back to the FX market again, seeking for new adventure and at the same time, donating to the FX community. :) Ok, just a joke....

I'm still here....

2007-03-22T08:47:00.000+08:00

Something interesting that i stayed out of market this whole month: Sustaining the unsustainable

New Year

2007-03-04T20:24:00.000+08:00

Seems that the forex market is at its interesting level... I didn't blog in Feb as it was Chinese New Year, therefore busy with preparation, cleaning, fengshui analysis, and etc, etc.... Today is Chap Go Mei....

RMB & USD impression

2007-01-30T20:32:00.000+08:00

Fundamental for today:
Jan 30, 15:00 GMT United States !! Consumer Confidence 109.00 p 109.50 p
Jan 31, 00:00 GMT Australia ! New Home Sales -5.30 %

I won't expect something specticular like a move of 100 pips... except on the FOMC Minutes and the NFP. The fate of the USD, all depends on the results. :)

Ahh... Forex market is in it's mood swing... What better way to do is to surf the internet, and start reading up, revealing the hidden mystery to my question.... It might be boring, and not worth the time to read...

I came Rob Kirby latest article on question on the possible answer to the big China / USD questions: How can China continue to add to its hoard of US bonds without ending up with giant worthless piles of paper as the dollar depreciates? How can the dollar go into freefall without seriously damaging the foreign (US Dollar) reserves of China? I really love the done up summary on the China USD stuff, which is well done up by Robert Chamber's Blog.

What Robert said in his blog had truth in it. Using bonds as margin to purchase future commodities, passing risk to commodities manufacturing companies, and converting this raw material into value added finished goods. Having a long term vision, reducing currency risk and ultimately having the power to monopolise and control the market.

But, i don't think RMB is going to appreciate fast, as it still needs it's manufacturing product to be exported out. If RMB appreciated too fast, just like the Euro dollar, we will be seeing more China workers being layoff, due to cutting of cost of production.

After reconsidering all this elements, what the Fengshui Master Khoo said might be true, in the metal industries in China will grow. Hmmm..... Interesting indeed.

NFP this Friday

2007-01-29T21:37:00.000+08:00

There are not much fundamental to look and analysis this week... Except for the preparation of the NLP. No much movement for today, hoping that tomorrow will be better...

Barclays, Standard Chartered Are Yen Bears on Rates
Yen Falls as Government Report Shows Waning Consumer Spending
Bloomberg Currency Survey Says to Sell Yen, Euro Versus Dollar

Malaysia Scam

2007-01-26T15:59:00.000+08:00

Wow, look at this....

Job seekers lose thousands of ringgit in elaborate scam
Lure of quick money behind forex scams

This is how bad in Malaysia... :(

S'pore inflation rate increase

2007-01-23T22:12:00.000+08:00

Singapore Dec. Inflation Rate Climbed to 5-Month High Finally, someone wrote about this, regarding GST hike, raise in housing, veggies increase due to flood and reduce in corporate tax to encourage foreign investor. I wonder how i am going to survive without any salary increase. :(

Forex update
BOJ Minutes was announced today, I was expecting some movement, getting ready to do some trading. To my surprise, volatility is very low, ended up not trading during Asian. There were no fundamental for USD, EUR and GBP, yet, after Euro session, volatility picked up. Sometimes, i wonder, does this volatility has to do with political issue regarding US and Iraq; or maybe just a investor's sentiment towards the currency; or because of the slight increase in the commodities "Oil Rises on Heating Demand, Kidnappings by Nigerian Militants" ; or Bush Confronts `Political Reality' in Tonight's State of Union. All the above are a possibility.... :)

Interesting news for today
Germans get by without the euro
Petraeus, U.S. Commander in Iraq, Will Test Doctrine He Wrote
FOREX-Sterling at multi-yr highs on carry buying spree
US STOCKS-Futures point flat; heavy slate of earnings

FED on the move

2007-01-22T23:23:00.000+08:00

After last week of Ben Bernanke speech which is hawkish, supported with positive reinforcement from fundamental. I guess everyone is clueless regarding the next step of action. Today's market is a very narrow market with those trader who trade, holds their position overnight.

Ok, this is FED summary conclusion, which of course leaves me with a USD negative impression:
Moskow Sets Retirement, Leaving Fourth Fed Opening
Fed's Hoenig Says Inflation Too High; Interest Rates May Help
Bernanke Warns of Possible `Crisis' From Budget Gap

Market Sentiment

2007-01-18T18:49:00.000+08:00

Ok, this is an important index showing the current market positioning in the long term. Good to do some cross referencing once in a while: Sterling Shorts Make 77% of the Open Interest :D

Fundamental news

17/01/06

BOJ maintain it's interest rate after a 6-3 vote. Current rates are .25% for o/n and .40% for the Lombard rate. Based on the 6-3 vote many analysts are expecting the rate change to occur at the February 20-21 meeting. Have to wait for next month to see any changes. If you seriously looking at the USDJPY chart, it is moving towards 2005 high as compared to 2006.

This is a very wonderful special report being written: Bank of Japan to Raise Rates? Currency Traders' Views Diverge. Really love this report. The speculative sentiment index for the whole week was a sell jpy, and I even have rumours that despite the increase in interest rate, it would be a sell jpy and buy jpy. Even though the report stating that majority economists predict this rate hike, hey, economists don't trade, only investor's do. Am i right? ha ha....

Based on the 6-3 vote many analyst are now expecting the rate change to occur at the February 20-21 meeting.

18/01/06

Consumer prices climb in December

December housing starts up 4.5 pct

Jobless claims post surprising drop last week

Martin Luther King day

2007-01-15T19:12:00.000+08:00

It's Holiday today in USA. So far, volatility is expected to drop as compared to a normal trading day. Should be boring eh... It's a good day to read up all the reports, and analyse on the next movement and wave in tomorrow's market. That's include remembering as below, once in a while:

DENNIS GARTMAN'S NOT-SO-SIMPLE RULES OF TRADING

Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position... not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading's carcinogen; it is trading's driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it!
Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically
Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than the latter. Holding losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs immeasurable mental capital
This Is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling High; it is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget strength, and weakness, weakness
In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may seem self-evident; few understand it however, and fewer still embrace it
"Markets Can Remain Illogical Far Longer Than You or I Can Remain Solvent." These are Keynes' words, and illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe
Buy Markets That Show the Greatest Strength; Sell Markets That Show the Greatest Weakness: Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw rocks into the wettest paper sacks, for they break most easily. When bullish we need to sail the strongest winds, for they carry the farthest
Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Simple Technician: The fundamentals may drive a market and we need to understand them, but if the chart is not bullish, why be bullish? Be bullish when the technicals and fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem
Trading Runs in Cycles, Some Good, Most Bad: Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and ever smaller when trading poorly. In "good times," even errors turn to profits; in "bad times," the most well-researched trade will go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on
Keep Your Technical Systems Simple: Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. The great traders we've known have the simplest methods of trading. There is a correlation here!
In Trading/Investing, An Understanding of Mass Psychology Is Often More Important Than an Understanding of Economics: Simply put, "When they are cryin', you should be buyin'! And when they are yellin', you should be sellin'!"
Bear Market Corrections Are More Violent and Far Swifter Than Bull Market Corrections: Why they are is still a mystery to us, but they are; we accept it as fact and we move on.
There Is Never Just One Cockroach: The lesson of bad news on most stocks is that more shall follow... usually hard upon and always with detrimental effect upon price, until such time as panic prevails and the weakest hands finally exit their positions
Be Patient with Winning Trades; Be Enormously Impatient with Losing Trades: The older we get, the more small losses we take each year... and our profits grow accordingly
Do More of That Which Is Working and Less of That Which Is Not: This works in life as well as trading. Do the things that have been proven of merit. Add to winning trades; cut back or eliminate losing ones. If there is a "secret" to trading (and of life), this is it
All Rules Are Meant To Be Broken.... but only very, very infrequently. Genius comes in knowing how truly infrequently one can do so and still prosper

Interesting Stuff

Wow, China's Foreign Currency Reserves Top $1 Trillion, just imagine, $1 Trillion being pumped. Would be a pretty interesting sight... he he..

Hedging funds is on the move: Canadian Dollar Falls Prey to Hedge Funds as Crude, Copper Drop

I find this article interesting and good as well: 25 Year Stock Market Top

What's Next?

2007-01-11T18:51:00.000+08:00

Quoted from Euro (EUR) Traders Insecure Ahead of ECB Rate Decision
The long awaited European Central Bank interest rate decision is tomorrow morning and the Euro is weak going into it, which means that should there be any upside surprises, the EUR/USD has plenty of room to rise. The main question the market is contemplating at the moment is not how much the ECB will move but whether ECB President Trichet will stick to his hawkish stance since no rate changes are expected. Recent economic data suggests that even though growth in the Eurozone economy is improving, the improvements have been limited to certain sectors. The drop in oil prices has also been helping to lower inflationary pressures but at the same time, recent Euro weakness is keeping it from falling too far. Trichet surprised the market in December by remaining extremely vigilant and to date, we have not heard any differently from other ECB officials. The ECB is not a central bank that likes surprises which means that if they were to change their stance, they would have most likely let the market know by now. Therefore it is quite clear why the market is so insecure going into this rate decision. Insecurity only means one thing in the currency market and that is, volatility. Meanwhile the Eurozone data released this morning was softer than expected. Both French industrial production and the French trade balance deteriorated in the month of November while the German wholesale price index remained flat in December.

BOE MPC hikes repo rate 25 basis points to 5.25%. Strong bulls in on the move here. No surprise for me as it was announcement last year. Everything is pretty in prospective. As expected ECB leave rate the same as it it.

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2007

2007-01-01T08:08:00.000+08:00

YeS, it's here again... A whole new year, with new resolution and new plans and target....

With internet is not fully operational with some slow internet speed, will check back on this Friday, that's the Non-Farm Payroll January 2007... YAHOO....................

EURO in boilling pot

2006-12-29T19:35:00.000+08:00

It is pretty surprised to see this, French hostility to euro begins to gather pace. Wow.... with the EURO strengthening, french growth slumped to halt in the 3rd quarter due to incipient crisis in the car industry: Peugeot Citroen laying off 10,000 worker. Trichet during this year did claimed that ECB going to increase interest rate, with this on mind, Euro countries is going to suffer the consequent of having a stronger currency. Good or bad? Guess either way, it is still bad as higher interest rate would meant stronger currency, loan would increase which indirectly affect the company's borrowing fund. Because of this, company would have to take drastic measure to cut costs, which lead to laying off of workers. Eventually bad for everyone, except investors and importer.

Few more days to 2007. Slovenia will become the 13th eurozone member on 1 January 2007. Something interesting: German EU presidency lumbered with massive to-do list

Quake aftermath

2006-12-28T21:06:00.000+08:00

Finally, internet is much better now after some synchronized and internet traffic adjustment from Service Provider in Singapore: Asia back online after quakes but access patchy. Pretty interesting to know about this, Jobless claims inched up last week. Guess USD is not strengthening any sooner.

I am not trading this week as the volatility is not high, i consider them as pretty dangerous week. Some Crude Oil news: Nigerian oilfield sieges end, Shell resumes output.

EARTHQUAKE, internet disrupted

2006-12-26T21:12:00.000+08:00

Christmas 2006 is a wonderful and rewarding for this year. I had the most Christmas presents and warm greeting from friends as well.... How nice indeed.. However, today, Taiwan earthquake has caused internet access in Asia being disrupted. Wow, I'm having problem with connectivity as well. Starhub, Singnet, Pacific internet all having disruption, therefore not trading today. :(

Blue Ocean Strategy

2006-12-25T13:04:00.000+08:00

When i first browse through the shelves of books at the bookstore and come across this "Blue Ocean Strategy", my initial impression was this, wow, Harvard Business School Press is expanding its horizon to the Deep Blue Seas - Marine Biology. It was pretty amazed that it has nothing to do with Marine Biology or any aquaculture, it's all about Business Strategy...

According to Blue Ocean Strategy book, market universe composed of 2 sorts of oceans: Red Oceans and Blue Oceans. Red Oceans represent all industries in existence today, can be known as the market space. Its industry bountaries are defined, accepted and competitive rules of the game are known. Once companies try to outperform their rivals to grab greater share of existing demand, products become commodities and cutthroat competition turns the red ocean bloody.

Blue Oceans denote all the industries not in existence today, it is an unknown market space. It is defined by untapped market space, demand creation and opportunity for highly profitable growth. Some blue oceans are created well beyond existing industry boundaries, most are created within red oceans by expanding existing boundaries. What is best about blue ocean is that competition is irrelevant because rules of the game are waiting to be set.

I found that most young adult have the urge to buy a particular product, most of the reasons are personal gratification, boost self image and egoistic behaviour. Blue oceans work well in this context due to the current mindset. However, i don't think blue oceans will not work well in the longer term, due to the fact that it is not the basic necessity, unless society's needs has indirectly turning this blue ocean into red ocean.

Futures Market Recap

2006-12-22T22:22:00.000+08:00

Dollar Moves Higher on Positive Data
Extracted by John Lee

U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell today, after reports showed that U.S. personal spending and consumer confidence beat analyst expectations. Traders pared gains from yesterday's run-up before the 3-day weekend. Bonds have been trading back and forth on conflicting economic reports and announcements coming from the U.S. The weaker the report is, the more bonds move higher; bonds initially shot up in June when the Fed began a rate-pause to deal with a slowing economy with moderating inflation. Bonds had begun to pull back from 11-month highs when yesterday's Philly Fed came in much weaker than expected, sending bonds higher. As the year nears its end, investors are still undecided on the future of the U.S. economy and bond prices. Data and reports continue to send mixed signals.

The dollar moved to 8-week highs against the yen, and moved moderately higher against the euro, after two key economic reports showed positive results in the U.S. The dollar had fallen to 20-month lows against the euro before rallying on a string of positive economic data reports. The global currency market has been dominated by inflationary and rate-hike news. Europe has the best position right now on the global market, with its economy growing much faster than both the U.S. and Japan. The yen and dollar will face a tough 2007 unless more positive economic data starts to show up.

Crude oil futures fell 0.4% to close at $62.41, despite attacks on Nigerian oil-producing facilities. Warm weather in the U.S. continues to drive prices lower, as energy demands decrease along with warm weather. Crude is down 25% from its highs, which has prompted OPEC to call for a reduction cut which nears 2 million barrels a day. Despite the warnings, the price of crude continues to fall on warm weather and ample supplies. Natural gas fell to 9-week lows on warm weather and large supplies. Gold rose fractionally today as investors brace for increased demand. Weakness in the dollar and rising oil prices usually send gold higher, but there was not enough action in those markets to spark a major move in the metal. Gold is used as a hedge against rising oil and inflation; gold is down nearly 20% from its May highs, but still rests well above levels from last year. Copper continued to fall today on high supplies and weakening manufacturing in the U.S. Wheat rose the most in a month today, extending its recent mega-rally, on speculation that crop damage will limit global supplies. Corn futures rose to a 3-week high on speculations that ethanol production will double in the coming years, obviously creating more demand for corn.

Economic News
U.S. personal spending increases the most since July.
Durable good orders rose in November, but business equipment demand slowed.

Back to serious business

2006-12-21T12:42:00.001+08:00

Extracted will delete off after i make up the Tuesday and Wednesday summary and entries:

1. Thursday, December 21st, 2006 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have two important reports coming out of the UK. We have GDP & Current Account coming out. Both are capable of moving GBP/USD by 30 to 50 pips. What happens if they conflict? The whipsaw massacre happens. Then you say, why not wait for both of them, and only trade if they don't conflict? Well...imagine one of these reports gets released 2 seconds faster than the other, and the first one already moved the market by 30-40 pips, and you see that the 2nd one doesn't conflict, and you enter at the top or bottom of the maxed out move...no good. GDP is a little bit bigger caliber report, but a very steady one with minimal deviations. Current account is a bit smaller caliber, but the deviations can be crazy. What I will do is look for a shock on the GDP number, a shock so strong, that it will make the current account look irrelevant. So GDP is expected to come out at 0.7%. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If it comes out at 0.5% or less, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. But the chances of such deviations are slim to none.

2. Thursday, December 21st, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have 4 different reports coming out. Another freaking waste of golden opportunities by slamming all these reports into release all at the same time. We have core retail sales coming out of Canada, which can move USD/CAD by as much as 50 pips or more. We have Canadian GDP coming out, which can also move USD/CAD by as much as 50 pips or more. We also have U.S. GDP coming out, which can move GBP/USD by 50 pips or more. We also have quarterly PCE coming out, which is important, but usually very steady, with very few deviations and surprises. I am going to have to ignore the golden Canadian reports, because of potential unpleasant conflict. I will focus on U.S. GDP, which is expected at 2.2%. If it comes out at 2.4% or higher, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If it comes out at 2.0% or lower, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. PCE Core is expected at 2.2%, if it conflicts by at least 0.2%, I will exit my positions immediately.

3. Thursday, December 21st, 2006 (12:00 pm New York Time) USA
We have Philly Fed Index coming out of the U.S. It's expected that the number will come out at 4.0. If the number comes out at 15 or higher, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If the number comes out at -5 or more negative, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If my triggers are hit, I expect GBP/USD to move by at least 25 to 35 pips...

Euro rate hike 2007

2006-12-20T12:41:00.000+08:00

I wasn't surprise when i saw this article, FOREX-Buoyant euro scores lifetime high vs yen which indicate that German business sentiment firmed expectations for further euro zone rate hikes. ECB Trichet even testify that rate hike in early 2007. Sounded very strong and positive to me. U.S. Treasuries up slightly. The dollar is down against the euro after yesterday's upbeat survey of German business sentiment firmed expectations for an interest-rate hike from the European Central Bank. Stocks rally on Thai turnaround, euro strong.

On the other side of the globe, Home loan demand slumps as refinancing plunges. Ouch, this is going to hurt the USD. Guess, we won't be seeing USD strengthening any sooner due to the ECB interest rate hike in 2007. It would be pretty interesting to wait for the Blair resignation which is due next year too. If USD do not regain strength during Blair resignation, only miracle could strengthen USD then.

Other interesting news
Sweden's Ericsson AB is buying Redback Networks for $2.1 billion in cash, while steelmaker Arcelor Mittal is acquiring Mexico's Sicartsa for $1.44 billion.

Oil prices are nearing $64 a barrel ahead of data that experts expect to show a fall in U.S. crude stocks after dense fog disrupted imports.

Life goes on....

2006-12-19T12:40:00.000+08:00

Wow, I do missed 1 week of interesting entries for last week. The best i can do is to continue with a general summary of today's event

Turbulence overseas isn't helping the mood. A steep drop in Thai stocks has pulled Asian markets lower and is bringing back uncomfortable memories of the 1997 meltdown in the region. Singapore share prices closed sharply lower as investors, unnerved by the stockmarket slump in Thailand, elected to take profits following the main index's recent record-breaking run, dealers said. The SET composite index in Thailand tumbled as much as 15 pct at one point in reaction to capital controls imposed by the Bank of Thailand, aimed at curbing speculation in the baht.

U.S. Treasuries are up as investors expect the numbers to show a cooling housing market and benign inflation pressures. The dollar is steady against the yen. Tokyo shares close lower as investors locked in recent gains after the BOJ decided to keep the overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.25 pct, a move that had been widely expected by the market, dealers said.

Oil has slipped below $62 a barrel as mild U.S. weather cuts demand for heating fuel.

It's the best of times and the worst of times for two transatlantic stock-exchange mergers. Euronext shareholders have approved the company's sale to NYSE Group, but the London Stock Exchange keeps spurning Nasdaq as it touts its bullish profit outlook.

Heed Oracle: The software maker reported disappointing sales late yesterday, and now stock futures are pointing to a down day.

Morgan Stanley shares have edged up after the investment bank posted higher-than-expected quarterly results and announced plans to spin off its Discover credit-card business.

Delta Air Lines has rejected US Airways' $8.4 billion bid and filed a plan to emerge from bankruptcy as an independent company.

Missing In Action

2006-12-18T15:59:00.000+08:00

After 1 week of MIA (missing in action) in the forex battlefield, gosh, glad to be back to the same routine again - analysis and monitoring of the fx market. Boy, i do missed fx market a lot. Will continue plan, learn, unlearn and relearn.

TASS is having this session "Downloading Data from Internet FOC" by Ivan Koh on the 28/12/06. Guess I am planning to attending this as a refresher regarding Metastock format, function, and other interesting stuff - adjusting Prices for Bonus, Dividend and Right Issues. Nothing to do with forex, but, aiming to grasp the methodology behind the operating of the software. :D Will start gather, collect and prepare a long lists of questions starting this week.

Pretty scary to know that the world suddenly evolved dramatically in the business world. China for once is making all the right move in the forex world. Google too by acquire "YouTube". Historical cost is no longer valid indicator and can't be used for budget and prediction. However, Activity based costing more like a replacement of this historical cost in many ways. I used to study the psychology of the people in the business world, it seems that i have lost touch of business people mindset as they are moving in a constant fast pace, evolving and changing ideas in a split second. No longer the predictable business people, a few years back. It seems that this predictable honest business people are going to wipe out pretty soon. :(

A New Year, 2007 is just around the corner, so, intend to set out for early target, and plan to achieve them as a trader perspective. How time really fly. Still kicking on the battlefield, but one thing i am really glad is that i'm officially 1 year plus as a part-time trader, and i never thought of giving up that dream as a full time trader. Hoping that dream will be sooner. Cross my fingers and will pray and meditate on this real hard.

Current motto: "We have one life, live it the forex way".

Bonds

2006-12-09T12:59:00.001+08:00

Interesting stuff- Bonds: Anything To Get Excited About?

USD Strengthening

2006-12-07T14:04:00.000+08:00

Short explanation of USD Strengthening

USD regained ground against most currency due to Tuesday stronger than expected non manufacturing ISM data. The ISM data reflected improving conditions in the services sector and reinforce FED view of economic downturn is limited to housing and manufacturing sectors. Part of the USD strengthen also due to GBP economic data revealing an unexpected decline in both manufacturing and industrial output. Industrial output of down 0.8%, saw its steepest decline since August 2005. Because of GBP strong correlation with Euro, this bad data also sent EURO trading on lower ground. GBP Data as below:

GBP Industrial Production m/m -0.8% (A) 0.0% (F) 0.2% (P)
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m -0.4% (A) 0.0% (F) 0.0% (P)

Today, we have very interesting fundamental for both Euro and GBP. During ECB announcement today, I would like to see a 25 bp rate hike to 3.50% on its interest rate. However, the effect will be limited as Non-Farm payroll is tomorrow. YAHOO!!!!! I enjoyed last month NFP, trill and excitement.

Baby come crushing down

2006-12-06T17:14:00.000+08:00

It was good to be back after the weekends. Market continue to where it is, GBP and EURO come crushing down. I just read an article by Ed Ponsi, pretty surprise that someone has actually catch the strong trend of EURO and GBP on the up move, in a matter of months. Wow.... He classified this as "Deep Sea Fishing". Guess, I am still a bad fisherman after all, catching only a few small fishes even with tons of hardwork. Nothing comes easy after all in this world.... :( The only deep sea fishing that i have are some institutional aquaculture, i.e. buying GBP notes and keeping behind my pillow since beginning of the year. Real happy about that appreciation. :D If only i have the patience to hold on an electronic account for that longer time frame. Just like, having an aquaculture farm, buying all the small fishes, waiting like few months for the fishes to grow big, before it can be harvested or for the fishes to change sex (seabrass). :D

2 more days for non-farm payroll... have to research and read more before the actual day itself. Most institution normally during this few days have a vary different views, some said that it will turn up, others said that it will turn down. Which is which? At least, my great friend, Zeus is right after all. Always follow the gold pot, now at 636. :D

Down come Baby...

2006-12-01T12:59:00.000+08:00

Today was incredible.... GBPUSD was charging on a very strong uptrend, moving higher and higher... When it reached 1.9850, then, bam, downtrend is where it goes.... Of course there are fundamental behind it that support this...

One of my office computer broke down, not much research had been done ever since..... Will try to make up all the wasted time...

Baby is still on treetop

2006-11-30T13:05:00.000+08:00

The crane is carrying the baby, higher and higher up to the treetop. Guess, we have to wait for the baby to be fall flat on the ground. It will not be any sooner. US is still at its transitional period of adjustment without raising interest rate. The longest wait will be, NFP or Tony Blair to resign next year or a sudden wind change in US economy or terrorist attack in England. Patience is a virtual.

Making headlines for today:
GBP Surges to 14-year High, USD Resumes Slide by Korman Tam
Stocks seen up on retail sales strength
Smithfield Foods earnings fall, miss estimates
Consumer spending perks up in October

Wow, very very impressive... Mr. Jeffrey Tie finally have a blog: http://jefftie.wordpress.com/. Few months ago, I wanted to join as his apprentice in learning trade, however, time do not permit me to do so. Now, since he has a blog, can catch him in his action. :)

Bullet Train

2006-11-29T21:20:00.000+08:00

It seems that the GBP and EUR is like a Bullet Train, go crushing level after level of resistance, moving higher and higher up up up, like a hot air ballon. I didn't trade today, as i was busy assisting a friend to fix up PC.

Rock-A-Bye Baby

2006-11-28T13:43:00.000+08:00

Well, well... it seems Euro and GBP is still staying head strong on it's position... I really love this research paper: Consumer confidence should remain quite stable in November. If USD going to be stable and some indication of staying strong, it would meant that "TIMBER EFFECT" will be sooner than expected. Until then, still have to look at how is the sentiment of the market for now. My expectation would be Euro and GBP would remain in swing position, and would be great for all those swing traders. It would still be in a "rock-a-bye baby mode" of trading...

We have US Durable Goods Order and Consumer Confidence for today.. Until then, will have to staying behind the bush like a preditor in a jungle hunt, at least still better than swimming with the sharks... :D

Aftermath of Thanksgiving

2006-11-27T10:07:00.001+08:00

After the epic adventure of last week trading saga, most trader checked their platform to verify whether the rate shown in platform is true in value. This is due to the sudden price hike during the asian opening session.

Things are moving really really fast at the end of year 2006 as usual. Well, volatility is here to stay. Initially, i thought it would be a boring thanksgiving, but, surprise, surprise... most USD across other currency moved 100 pips last week. Because of this uncertainly, I reallly love the excitement it brings, and keep my heart pumping fast with tweaking of braincells to make my finger and mind to move to a faster pace of processing and movement.

Beijing: China yuan central parity rate set a new high of 7.8402

Fun, Fun, Fun....

2006-11-26T22:49:00.000+08:00

During last Friday forex performance, omg, USD weaken across board... firstly, it was due to Thanksgiving where most American trader was out for vacation. Secondly, economic outcome for GBP (BOE minutes) and ECB was good. To cope with the inflation, interest rate will be expecting to increase this few months. Third, amid speculation that the US Federal Reserve will cut borrowing rates as its European counterpart raises them. The growing belief is the culmination of several weeks of less than impressive US economic data combined with continued comment from ECB officials that point towards two further rate rises in 2007. Most experience traders were caught taking the wrong direction. Gosh, was really caught by this big surprise. I missed all this, as I was shopping for my own early Christmas present, a second-hand19 inch LCD HP at a reasonable price. :) Very happy about it....

During weekend, I travel from Singapore to JB for some shopping and relaxation of mine. Used 2nd link and passed through Gelang Patah. Gelang Patah, hmm..., has a seabrass and white prawn farming, didn't manage to visit the farm, but was glad to pass through it, as all this travel experience did had my mind tweaked a bit. There were great ideas forming, but, not great enough to share around. :( Hoping this tweak of mind would change the way how i analyse the forex market. :D

Rejoice... Happy ThanksGiving

2006-11-23T14:10:00.000+08:00

Finally, thanksgiving is today... and my exam over... What a great relief...

Now is the moment of truth, I am opening my secret Pandora's Box today, and unveil the secret that lies beneath the box. The fountain of truth and rejuvenation... Embarking on a Star-trek: Nemesis... :D Nice, cool and wonderful feeling it was.

The renown, Jake Bernstein is in Singapore. Still thinking of whether to attend his talk tomorrow or not... Hmm, stilll thinking....

Let's see what's in the knowledge market today:
Aussie John expects two more years of NSW pain
I thought US is having the housing problem, NSW is having this too... So, it is a global problem now.

AWB feels the pinch as its bills hit $34m
Not so interesting, but, still readable.

Uranium mine blamed for high Aboriginal cancer rate
Results of no social responsibility by the company

Pope considers allowing use of condoms
Wow, modernisation....

Nothing much on forex, as market is at it's narrow range bound.....

Danger, danger...

2006-11-21T12:25:00.000+08:00

Do note that Thanksgiving is this week for USA. Very slow slow market. Observation of holiday hours as below:
HOLIDAY HOURS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY

Forex is a dangerous market.... even big company also lost out... Currency Bets Punish Commodity Traders, Henry in 2006

This is a must read for all Malaysian:
While Malaysia fiddles, its opportunities are running dry Is Malaysia's oil going to run out soon?

Monday Blue

2006-11-20T14:24:00.000+08:00

It's Thanksgiving week for the American. Market volatility is expected to reduce, and traders would be facing with thin market throughout the end of this week. Since Singapore no longer provide NST Interactive for free (except TODAY), have to find other sources of newspaper to read. Saw this interesting article from India Daily: Fed will raise rate starting March 2007 – US Dollar gets ready for a rally

Regarding the article above, hmm, not sure what to think of it currently. But, my instinct is telling me that Fed will not increase current rate, due to political reasons (Republican/ Democrats). Too early to tell now, will have to wait and re-evaluate the situation in next year, January 2007.

After i read this article, Housing: The Riddle of Rates and Prices, makes me thinking of this matter too. No matter what, there is still a strong correlation between the price of housing vs the interest rate.

This few week, i had been reading stuff about Corporate Governance, Whistle Blowing and Combined Code, which are all about accounting. Let me introduce you to something for the finance industry, Plunge Protection Team ensures the stability of the financial markets, prevents liquidity problems, and ensures that stock market hiccups do not cause bank runs. :D

For me, corporate governance is basically for a micro-economic view, as it is all about the way company are directed and controlled for a corporation. Plunge Protection Team is more of a macro-economic view where it involve the danger of monetary inflation being used as a tool to more or less directly support stock market prices.

Just for fun: over in the other side of globe, this is really really funny... this is how they use economy surplus: Free Viagra spices up life in Brazilian town

Milton Tribute:Laissez-Faire Policy

2006-11-17T15:15:00.000+08:00

It is a pretty sad moment for Economist Milton Friedman to died at the age of 94. I used to read all his theory and ideas in textbook, and sometimes, quoted them during essay or speech. It is pretty sad to see this legendary man leave us.

NY Times: Milton Friedman, Free-Market Theorist, Dies at 94 (5 pages story)

"when a combination of high unemployment and inflation, known as "stagflation" is one of his quote. For more articles and bibliography: Milton Friedman

Interesting stuff
I really love this, it is about comments for Peter Costello where he is bearish all the time. For those who don't know who is he, well, basically he is the Australia's Federal Treasurer. Also interesting to know that that Australia's latest interest rate rise may be the last..... :D

Singapore Retail Sales Disappoint

2006-11-16T13:09:00.000+08:00

Singapore Dollar
(Extracted from FXCM)
Prospects for the city-state’s currency narrowed on the session following a disappointing retail sales figure for the month of September. Although making an advance on the month of 1.7 percent, the release falls well short of the 3.3 percent consensus estimate expected by the market. Department store sales were higher by a whopping 7 percent. However, wider losses in auto sales suppressed any explosive gains in the report. Lending to immediate weakness in the currency, the resultant effects are likely to be temporary as the economy’s consumers continue to remain strong, backed by a tight labour market spurring wage advances. Subsequently, the lackluster results are likely to accompany the upcoming non-oil exports report, which is additionally expected to show a slow down. For the month of October, exports are expected to drop to an increase of 6.5 percent compared to the previous month’s 8.3 percent annualized rise. Separately, equities were bolstered on a release by the second biggest property company in the country. City Developments Ltd. led advancing issues after the company stated profit that almost quadrupled, lending a positive bias on real estate shares. As a result, the Straits Times index added 17.74 points to 2,777.62 at the close, rising higher to a record for the second straight day.

Personal opinion
With the GST going to hike from the current 5% to 7% and chances of increase for individual & corporate tax, I wonder what is next to be install for people living in the Lion City. Bush is in town today, then, next year Democrats turn to take over. Until then, we will still see Bush around, until his term expire. Who is the next US President? Will we see Mitt Romney being the next US President? Anyway, I sure hope that everything would settle down, as every country in earth is suffering from inflation. If inflation still sky-rocketing in months to come, poor people would suffer, and rich people getting rich as start selling assets as everythings boom. Shares, unit trust, property, cost of living all going up. Sooner or later, depression will just hitting US, and spread the disease over to every part of the world. Is this the cyclical of the economic world? The good thing about forex trading is that there is always a demand and supply for the currency, and won't be affected by inflation and depression. :D

2 weeks Forex Break

2006-11-15T01:42:00.000+08:00

As the 2nd quarter of the financial period drawing to a close, forex volatility is here to stay. Funds managers and institution would love to improve the overall performance of the portfolio during this time of the year, by having a positive returns, just to stay answerable to the shareholders and stakeholders.

While looking at the charts and the forex counter moving pips per pips, gosh, i can't do any scalping now as it is pass my bedtime. Currently, Gold price rises to $627 an ounch; ECB is sayint rates are "accomodative"; crude oil rises after Saudi Arabia meets its pledge to trim output; ECB's Garganas says monetary conditions favour growth, strong vigilance is essential, ECB will act in a firm and timely manner; and many many more news during this US hours.

While blogging this, I was laughing all the way. Why? Basically, i have this paper to study, it is all about strategy, structure, control, time management and planning, nothing to do with the market. A promise is a promise, so have to stay focus to clear what i set to accomplish. Practically, it will be a break for me, to work on this newly acquired knowledge to put in use in forex, in a most bizarre way. Just saw my US friend, Zeus, who is using Chaos Theory style of trading, saying buy GBP at here, here, and here... Clearly, i will just staying sideline for now, until i clear my paper. Need to stay "focus"..... Missing all the fun..... :( Don't worry, I work harder after clearing my paper, targeting, Non-farm Payroll next month. Guess what, since I can't blog in tune with market, I have added few nice realtime stuff, to enhance the feeling of a one stop information station. Nice to see EURJPY at this level ;P

Sorry, information is here and there, in a very non-structural manner.

Nothing important here, just stating something what i learn:
Prahalad & Hamel (1990) Core competence as collective learning in the organisation, especially how to coordinate diverse production skills & integrated multiple stream of technologies. 3 tests to identify core competence: provide wide variety of markets; provide significant contribution to perceived customer benefits to final product and difficult for competitors to imitate. This relatively shows that organisation need to take this seriously to excel in this competitive market.

Oct 2006: Asian Fund Market

2006-11-14T09:39:00.000+08:00

Just putting here for those stock market savvy person, extracted Market Summary Oct 2006 from LIPPER, A Reuters Company

Singapore Fund - Equity Funds Up Again As Markets Power Ahead

Funds registered for sale in Singapore were up 1.28% in October, boosted by robust stock market gains, while authorized funds returned 1.35% on average.
Equity unit trusts appreciated 2.14%, with funds investing in Singapore (+6.34%), Australasia (+6.52%), Emerging Europe (+6.54%), and Gold & Precious Metals (+7.78%) leading gains
Currency translation losses ate into returns of fixed income funds (-0.38%) and money market products (-0.30%), despite declining long-term bond yields as the U.S. Federal Reserve left rates unchanged

Malaysia Fund - Equity Funds Up As Malaysian Bulls Return

Funds appreciated 1.97% in October, with gains across most sectors
Equity unit trusts again outperformed (+2.53%), with domestic natural resources and small-cap funds as well as global and regional real estate fund sectors being the notable winners during the month
Bond funds were up 0.78% on average, with Bond MYR performing in line with the month before (+0.80%), while Bond Global fell (-0.49%)
Islamic subsectors returned 1.80% on average, generally underperforming the broader market, with the exception of Protected-Islamic (+0.37%)

Thailand Fund - Domestic Funds Outperform As Thai Bourse Bounces Back

Funds registered for sale in Thailand advanced 1.87% in October, boosted by gains in both domestic and foreign offerings
Equity funds outperformed, notably Equity Thailand offerings (+4.83%), following a 5.30% rise in the SET Index
Fixed income funds were up 0.40% on average, with Bond THB gaining 0.41%, while foreign bond funds did less well because of translation factors
Money market funds returned 0.36% on average

Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Funds

Asian markets surged in October, with the Hang Seng Index hitting a six-year high
Equity Hong Kong, Europe, Asia Pacific ex Japan, and Greater China had outstanding performance in October and for the year to date
Equity Japan fell behind for the year to date
International capital inflows turned torrid, which the Hong Kong market was anticipating
China and U.S. economies turned toward a “soft landing”—benefiting global equity and bond markets

Taiwan Fund —The Darkest Hour Is Before the Dawn

Asian markets continued bullish, with the Philippines coming to the throne
Emerging Asia equity funds led; Taiwan equity funds fell behind
Equity Japan Sm-&Mid-Cap and Equity Japan were the bottom two categories YTD
Oil, commodities, and precious metals stopped their slump, and the related funds rebounded
Developments in Taiwan politics became the focus

Latest Asian Power

2006-11-13T13:05:00.000+08:00

Wow, BOC is sure making one of its top investment history this recent months: Bank of China, Dubai May Bid for Singapore Aircraft Leasing. The economic outlook for China seems getting better and better: China Inflation Unexpectedly Slows as Food Gains Ease.

If the deal for Singapore Aircraft Leasing is successful, RMB will weaken when there is an outflow of funds out of China. I think RMB is going to be a major hot currency to trade, sooner or later.

The weak Japanese Yen has caused Asian Stocks Drop, Led by BHP on Metals; Japanese Banks Fall and this Yen Lures Swiss, Russian, New Zealand Central Banks. Note to forget, Japanese current account surplus rising..... Guess i will be watching closely on this Japanese Yen too.... Swimming with the latest trend. :D

Holistic view: Porter's 5 Forces

2006-11-12T12:13:00.000+08:00

While reading on the economic impact of the forex market between Euro and Japan for the production of automobile industry, my mind being trigger by the Porter's 5 forces model. Porter's 5 forces model is a tool to analyse the industry which a company is interested to enter or considering to further invest in or to identify what competitive strategy is needed. Michael Porter arguees that competition in an industry is determined by its basic underlying economic structure - the 5 competitive forces namely threat of entry, rivalry among existing competitors, substitutes, bargaining power of buyers and bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat of entry can affect the profitability of the industry by creating an impact through an actual entry or by forcing firms to follow pre-emptive strateges to stop new entrants. An actual entry may lead to a forced price reduction or differentiation by incumbents. Incumbents may build up the barriers-to-entry to deter prospective entrants. Barriers-to-entry may include economies of scale, switching costs, access to distribution, cost advantages and government policy.

With an interest rate of 0.25% for Japan and 3.25% for Euro (5% for Cable), the mortgage or lending rate for both country will greatly affect the strategic planning in their export market. I still recall vividly that USA has forced China to revalue its RMB, but China was holding it as the impact of the revaluation of a stronger RMB will cause the China export to drop. Then, this prompt me to ask myself, is this what Japan is trying to do in order to boost it's export market. Applying Suntzu art of war in the business market by penetrating any market (US Market) with an attractive exchange rate. Bulk production also makes acquisition of raw material for the manufacturing production cheaper. Sidelines, older Japanese car model are being sold to 3rd world countries after reconditioned.

By having this threat to new entry being minimised from Euro market, rivary among existing market is being reduced due to cost leadership and differentiation (innovative design), and Japanese animation being a brain-wash mechanism in the US market. Thinking of World War 2 how Japanese brain-wash the youngster. Japan will be a super-power in years to come in the business arena.

*Note, there is no real substance in this, just writing for fun. :D

Asian Power

2006-11-11T09:30:00.000+08:00

This few days has been a tough forex market, as the range is getting narrow for some of the currency pairs. A very good market for scalper, and not a LT trader. Most LT trader are staying sideline for major pairs, until the market is clear of the direction. If there are news, they are only great for scalpers or professional fx trader.

The major fundamental report results:
Nov 9
09:30 GMT UK ! Trade Balance -6.6B (A) -6.5B (E) -6.7B (P)
12:00 GMT UK !!! Bank of England Rate Decision 5.00% (A&E) 4.75% (P)
13:30 GMT US !!! Trade Balance -64.3 (A) -66.0B (E) -69.9B (P)

Nov 10
13:45 GMT United States !! Fed Bernanke / ECB Trichet speaks

Economic growth in France stagnated in the third quarter of the year. Could this be a sign that USD might cover some ground, since next week is all about Euro fundamental. Or maybe this: Germany's trade gets export boost to maintain the USD at where it is on EURUSD. Very interesting isn't it? Because of this, Japan is moving EURJPY to a rate of 151.01, in order to gain competitive advantages through cost leadership in US market due to exchange rate. When EURJPY reached this 151 level, I was jumping out of my seat, so is any other traders. Many had to cut loss for this trade. Luck for me, I was not trading at that time, due to many big sharks lurking around the sea. Still waiting to read article about this, or maybe no one is writing this except me. :D

This week, Governor Zhou Xiaochuan gain popularity in the forex market. There were even rumours about BOC and BOJ invested lots of Euro to push the euro at this level, 1.2841, indirectly pushing EURJPY at a higher ground. How true is it? Not sure. Last time, BOJ used to be a major FX influence, now, BOC. It seems that more asian countries are taking forex as an interest after all. Wonder who's next?

Latest news regarding People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan: Dollar Drops This Week as China Says It Will Diversify Reserves

Ok, since this week someone from India is asking me for Ichimoku Kinko Hyo book, I might as well blog this a bit. Ichimoku is basically a technical indicator that is used to gauge momentum along with future areas of support and resistance. The Ichimoku indicator comprised of five lines called the tenkan-sen, kijun-sen, senkou span A, senkou span B and chickou span. It has the strengthen for trader to gauge an asset's trend, momentum and support and resistance points without the need of any other technical indicator. I know one of the bank that is good at this: Saxo Bank, where most analysis is based upon this. For those who are interested to learn more about this exotic indicator, try a newly setup forum where kumotrader gathered around for exchange of ideas and learn, http://www.boersmaandhunt.com/kumotrader_forum/.

Trader's life journey

2006-11-09T14:27:00.000+08:00

My experience to date personally and in discussion with other traders confirms its accuracy.

Step One: Unconscious Incompetence
This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. You know that its a good way of making money because you've heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy - afterall, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down - what's the big secret to that then - lets get cracking! Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven't got the first clue about what you're trying to do. You take lots of trades and lots of risks. When you enter a trade it turns against you so you reverse and it turns again .. and again, and again. You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you'll get away with it but more often than not you will come away shattered and bruised. You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading. This step can last for a week or two of trading but the market is usually swift and you move.

Step Two - Conscious Incompetence
Step two is where you realise that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realise that you are an incompetent trader -you don't have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit. You now set about buying systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from USA to the Ukraine, and begin your search for the holygrail. During this time you will be a system nomad - you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new indicator you'll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference. You will test out automated systems on Metatrader, you'll play with moving averages, Fibonacci lines, support resistance,Pivots, Fractals, Divergence, DMI, ADX, and a hundred other things all in the vein hope that your 'magic system' starts today. You'll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and you'll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right. You'll go in to the live chat room and see other traders making pips and you want to know why it's not you - you'll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You'll then reach the point where you think all the ones who are calling pips after pips are liars - they can't be making that amount because you've studied and you don't make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. But they're in there day after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls. You will be like a teenager - the traders that make money will freely give you advice but you're stubborn and think that you know best - you take no notice and overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to - but you know better. You'll consider following the calls that others make but even then it wont work so you try paying for signals from someone else - they don't work for you either. This step can last ages and ages - in fact in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year. This is also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration. Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You've probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times.

Step 3 - The Eureka Moment
Towards the end of stage two you begin to realise that it's not the system that is making the difference. You realise that its actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment. The eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realise that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 mins. You start to work just one system that you mould to your own way of trading,you're starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold. You start to take every trade that your 'edge' shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don't get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn't possibly predict it, it isn't your fault - as soon as you realise that the trade is bad you close it . The next trade will have higher odds of success because you know your system works. You have realised in an instant that the trading game is about one thing - consistency of your 'edge' and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favour. You learn about proper money management and leverage - risk of account etc etc - and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren't ready then, but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market.

Step 4 - Conscious Competence
You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it looses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account You are now at a point where you break even most of the time - day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 pips and weeks where you lose 100 pips - generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently. You'll start the day on a 20 pip win, take a 35 pip loss and have no feelings that you've given those pips back because you know that it will come back again. You will now begin to make consistent pips week in and week out 25 pips one week, 50 the next and so on. This lasts about 6 months

Step Five - UnconsciousCompetence
Now we're cooking - just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade - you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 100 pips in a day is becoming quite normal to you.This is trading utopia - you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account. You're a star in the trading chat room and people listen to what you say. You recognise yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they're teenagers - some of them will get to where you are - some will do it fast and others will be slower - literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will. Trading is no longer exciting - in fact it's probably boring you to bits - like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job - it gets boring - you're doing your job and that's that. You can now say with your head held high "I'm a currency trader" FACT : 90%+ of traders loose money trading FOREX. I quote from Dr Alexander Elder's excellent book, Trading for a Living" Brokerage records indicate that 90 out of 100 people trading today will probably be gone from the markets a year from now. They will hitrock bottom, crumble and leave. They will try to forget trading as they would a bad dream." The 64000 question is : Are you prepared to put in the time and effort necessary to put yourself into the 10% group who make money? There are no shortcuts.

US Election Result

2006-11-08T16:47:00.000+08:00

Well, US Election result is out... and guess what, Democrats win. This is what i'm afraid of, a close battle. I was rooting for a strong one party win, that is Republican, at least USD would strengthen. No more Bush, and we will get to see more Nancy Pelosi in media now. :(

Now, USD weaken... Guess the USD strengthen near the end of year would not be the same as last year. Prove one thing, "History don't repeat itself" :D

US Election Day

2006-11-07T15:08:00.000+08:00

SG Tues 021106 1600H
While i was reading in a forex forum, i saw this "Great minds discuss ideas, mediocre minds discuss events, small minds discuss people", then i saw my blog.... argh... My calibre is only at a mediocre range. This really prompt me for an PERT (Project Evaluation Review Technique) style of constant evaluation.

Ok, back to business.

Last Friday, 031106 fundamental report
USD Nonfarm Employment Change 92K 130K 51K
USD Unemployment Rate 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 57.1 55.0 52.9
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 51.9 54.0 56.7

It was a spectacular event indeed on that NFP evening. Within 1 min, it moved up 20 pips, then there were some error, it quickly adjust to the error. At the end of the day, it was a USD positive. It was nothing much to talk about NFP as this is the day where Technical Analysis is not workable, within the first 5 min after the news are out. Investor stress, tension, and emotion is everywhere. It was fun just to watch all this happening, better than SGX stock, due to the high volatility.

Normally, I don't trade after NFP on the following trade day, Monday. It is because normally the range is very narrow, and directionless.

Today's fundamental:
10:00 GMT European Monetary Union !! Retail Sales (MoM)
11:00 GMT Germany ! Industrial Production (MoM)
11:00 GMT United Kingdom !! BRC Retail Sales Monitor - All (YoY)

Guess what, today's fundamental is nothing. What every investor is waiting are the US election report. Whether greenback will strengthen or weaken, all depends on who is winning, Democrats vs Republicans. I would expect that if a strong win of one party, USD might strengthen. If a 50%-50% vote, it will be very interesting as the market investor would stay sideline waiting for the reaction of hedge fund manager or some banking institution to make their first move. If you want more instant update, stay tune to Bloomberg / Marketwatch or rss feed of US news station.

*Do note that Watanabe or those RBA Melbourne Cup will not be cover, maybe later in the month when all US is out of the picture.

Weekend enjoyment

2006-11-03T09:28:00.000+08:00

Over the weekend, i spent few hours playing on my latest collection, gadget for market analysis. I bought them at a fortune, and i find them "priceless". Now, I have EOD for Metastock and Advanced GET, with more indicators to play with, and also Elliot Wave function. Pretty cool... as now, i can analyse any market: futures, options, Hang Seng, KLSE, anything as long i have those raw data. After my exam, I will have more programming language to work on, with strategy testing, and so forth. :D

I won't know how my future going to be, but, one thing for sure, spending time analysing and working on the market makes me happy and contented.

USD Meltdown

2006-11-02T18:46:00.000+08:00

SG 021106 1852H

311006 Fundamentals
German Retail Sales m/m -1.7% 0.6% 0.0%
UK Nationwide House Prices m/m 0.7% 0.5% 1.3%
EUR Business Climate Indicator 1.42 1.43 1.46
USD Consumer Confidence 105.4 108.0 104.5
USD Chicago PMI 53.5 58.0 62.1

Practically, it has been a complete USD meltdown after the 311006 weak release where Conference Board's number dropped from 105.9 to 105.4. The major meltdown was due to the Chicago PMI report where it dropped from 62.1 to 53.5, the lowest since August 2005.
Inventories accumulated to the highest level since the 1970s, which suggests that some harsh measures may need to be taken to rein in those numbers.

011106 Fundamental
USD ISM Manufacturing Index 51.2 53.0 52.9
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 47.0 58.0 61.0

On 011106, USD ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to 51.2 whereas ISM Manufacturing Prices dropped from 61.0 to 47.0. Scary indeed, investor across the board dumping, dumping and dumping money to sell sell sell USD. It is not surprising enough to see USD across the board dropped more than 100 pips in less than an hour. Isn't that a "WOW".....

Whether USD will regain strength or not, it will all boil down to NFP this Friday. :D Looking forward to that day. I really missed a lot due to concentration on other matter. :(

Recap USD Positive - 301006

2006-10-31T13:32:00.000+08:00

SG 311006 1500H

Before the recap of yesterday fundamental, I would like to wish "Happy Halloween" to whoever celebrating them today. Also note that countries are having "Daylight Saving Time", so, be watchful on the time. Details below explain time changes & countries that use/don't use DST:
http://www.infoplease.com/spot/daylight1.html
http://webexhibits.org/daylightsaving/g.html

Based on the release yesterday (as below), it clearly shows that it is a USD positive, PCE was -0.3%. The amount is not that significant, as least GBP was moved from 1.9045 down to 1.9000. This is really great as i was hoping for this to happen. At last, a USD positive after last week USD weakening. Some trader still caught in the bull trend when the data was released. Luckily, i was not caught in the net.

USD Personal Spending m/m 0.1% (A) 0.2% (E) 0.1% (P)
Measures the total value of consumer purchases of goods and services over the past month. Consumer spending makes up two thirds of GDP and therefore a rising trend generally strengthens a country's currency.

USD PCE Price Index m/m -0.3% (A) 0.1% (E) 0.2% (P)
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the rate of inflation experienced by consumers. Like CPI, it reflects the price change in consumer goods and services. PCE differs slightly from CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Traders watch the PCE Price Index closely because it's the Federal Reserve's preferred consumer inflation indicator.

Today's data is not that great, however, it could still move the market with more than 10 pips. Market mover report are as follow:

07:00 GMT Germany ! Retail Sales (MoM)
07:00 GMT United Kingdom !! Nationwide Housing Prices (MoM)
10:00 GMT European Monetary Union !! Business Climate Indicator
15:00 GMT United States !! Chicago PMI
15:00 GMT United States !! Consumer Confidence

The real fireworks would be on the 031106 for NFP and 071106 for US Mid term Election. An interesting article: Global Cash Glut Fuels Investment Boom, Rate Concern shows more interesting stuff is going to happen when FED, BOC, BOJ, ECB hold meeting to discuss on tightening. OPEC is holding meeting too when the crude price drill down below.

FreedomRocks Evaluation

2006-10-30T15:56:00.000+08:00

"The FR trading methodology is a brilliant and unorthodox way essentially of putting on a Hedge Strategy (Carry) Trade! The "Pip Allocator," a proprietary calculator, tells you exactly how many lots of each currency pair you should trade. And then the "Portfolio Manager," another proprietary calculator, tells you exactly where you should place your pending entry buy and sell orders to take profits when the market reaches a pre-determined position -- whether it goes up or down! Brilliant! You lock in those profits and then reset your position, and, in the meantime, the main trade hopefully will be making you additional money or at least be so closely hedged that you don't run the risk of losing money!

Intial stage can be a little fuzzy and hopelessly lost, but the truth is, it is really easy once you get the grasp of it, the written instructions and the video instructions are great, and best of all, once the trade is set, you are done! It is fully automated and you will be alerted by e-mail or text message to cell phone when profits have been taken. Until they are, there is nothing to do but hang out on the beach or do whatever else you want to do. You've got a life. You don't have to sit behind the computer 17 hours a day waiting for trading set-ups. You will be favorably impressed. "

All FR subscriber basically would say the same as above, due to the elements of MLM cum forex trading. Basically FR is not that bad. But, having to pay like U$100 per month, makes me think of whether it is worth it or not. Initially when i first tested it, it is pretty confusing, and i place on the demo account, first few weeks was pretty scary, after a while, it did show a profit, not that substantial. It is pretty short to have 15 days to test on a system. Personally, it did prompt me to consider subscribing to this system. Then, at the end of the day, I feel that learning to fish is better than paying for fish, looking at a long term prospect. Having this trading skills would enable me to trade in any market i wanted. Complete freedom.

I would like to thank the person who introduce me to FR, in which she has her website at http://www.forex4aliving.blogspot.com/. If you are looking for FR ways and tryout, you can always look her up. Everyone thinks differently, this makes us unique in many ways. If this is your path to wealth, by all means go ahead. I still prefer running with bulls and bears, more fun; or maybe catching falling knives at other times. :D

Recap on 271006

2006-10-30T09:05:00.000+08:00

Monday 301006 0730AM

A short recap for last Friday event:

9:30am CHF Leading Index m/m 2.00 (A) 2.25 (E) 2.32 (P)
Definition: Measures overall economic activity through a qualitative business survey about developments in the recent past, the current situation and expectations for the next three to six months. Survey questions relate to production, orders and stocks of finished goods. The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF) publishes this indicator monthly.

12:30pm USD GDP Annualized q/q 1.6% (A) 2.0% (E) 2.6% (P)
Definition: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and considered to be the primary gauge of an economy's health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. A strong economy also persuades the central bank to raise interest rates in an attempt to control growth. All of this activity will increase demand for the nation's currency.

12:30pm USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q 1.8% (A) 2.9% (E) 3.3% (P)
Definition: The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Deflator measures the annualized quarterly implied rate of inflation for all economic activity. The deflator is used to calculate the difference between nominal and real GDP. The Federal Reserve takes special note of this indicator because it is the economy's broadest measure of inflation.
* Note Definition is for those Non-forex fundamental background.

In short, even though the personal consumption was a solid 3.1%, US GDP was soft. This lower GDP deflator and PCE reading eventually caused USD to weaken even further. After some comments by US Treasury Sec Paulson, USD did gain some ground, but, not enough to move the market as much as the GDP did on the USD.

Today's event:
13:30 GMT United States !!! Personal Income (MoM)
13:30 GMT United States !!! Personal Spending

The weird thing that really puzzle me is Paulson, Greenspan, and Fed all commenting on pretty normal for US to have all those weak number due to inflation and USD will strengthen eventually. Is this a reality in what they are saying or just a hoax to confuse investors? Another weird stuff is US did send troop to Saudi with classified purpose. I think i just forget about all this news, and just concentrate of what investors are practically telling me in my technical analysis.

I will be covering a special edition commentary on my experience at FreedomRocks tomorrow, due to my last day of evaluation. :D

Recap of 261006

2006-10-27T11:18:00.000+08:00

SG 271006 1130am
There is nothing great about yesterday German Consumer Confidence as there is not much significant in the variance (Actual 9.2, Expected 9.5). The top market mover for yesterday was

USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 7.8% (A) 1.5% (E) -0.5% (P)
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.1% (A) 1.0% (E) -2.0% (P)
USD Unemployment Claims 308K (A) 305K (E) 299K (P)
USD New Home Sales m/m 5.3% (A) -0.1% (E) 4.1% (P)
(A) Actual (E) Expected (P) Previous

Even though the Durable Goods Orders has increase significantly, this figure was expected due to the large Boeing order. With the Unemployment Claims increased from 299K to 308K, FED stance on the FOMC and the OPEC decision to reduce production in December, this eventually weaken the USD across currency board. The recent release of the FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index also in favour of a stronger Euro versus weaken USD.

Today major market mover are as follow:
09:30 GMT Switzerland ! KOF Swiss Leading Indicator
10:00 GMT United Kingdom !! CBI Distributive Trades Survey-Expected
10:00 GMT United Kingdom !! CBI Distributive Trades Survey-Realized
12:30 GMT United States !!! Core PCE (QoQ)
12:30 GMT United States !!! GDP Annualized
12:30 GMT United States !!! Personal Consumption

Will USD further weaken against other currency this year? Based upon 2005 historical charts, USD was at its strongest during the last quarter of the year. Will history repeat itself this time? Only time is the determining factor for all this, as we see 2006 coming to an end (2 more months to go).

Leisure reading - Crude Oil

2006-10-26T23:27:00.000+08:00

Crude oil began futures trading on the NYMEX in 1983 and is the most heavily traded commodity.

Trading unit
Crude Oil Futures trade in units of 1,000 U.S. barrels (42,000 gallons). Options: One NYMEX Division light, sweet crude oil futures contract .

Trading Months
Crude Oil Futures trade 30 consecutive months plus long-dated futures initially listed 36, 48, 60, 72, and 84 months prior to delivery. Additionally, trading can be executed at an average differential to the previous day’s settlement prices for periods of two to 30 consecutive months in a single transaction. These calendar strips are executed during open outcry trading hours. Options: 12 consecutive months, plus three long-dated options at 18, 24, and 36 months out on a June/December cycle.

Price Quotation
Crude Oil Futures are quoted in dollars and cents per barrel.

Minimum Price Fluctuation
$0.01 (1¢) per barrel ($10 per contract).

Maximum Daily Price Fluctuation Futures
Initial limits of $3.00 per barrel are in place in all but the first two months and rise to $6.00 per barrel if the previous day's settlement price in any back month is at the $3.00 limit. In the event of a $7.50 per barrel move in either of the first two contract months, limits on all months become $7.50 per barrel from the limit in place in the direction of the move following a one-hour trading halt.
Options: No price limits.

Last Trading Day Crude Oil Futures
Trading terminates at the close of business on the third business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month. If the 25th calendar day of the month is a non-business day, trading shall cease on the third business day prior to the last business day preceding the 25th calendar day. Options: Trading ends three business days before the underlying futures contract.

Delivery
F.O.B. seller's facility, Cushing, Oklahoma, at any pipeline or storage facility with pipeline access to TEPPCO, Cushing storage, or Equilon Pipeline Co., by in-tank transfer, in-line transfer, book-out, or inter-facility transfer (pumpover).

Delivery Period
All deliveries are rateable over the course of the month and must be initiated on or after the first calendar day and completed by the last calendar day of the delivery month.

Copied from http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html, with chart

Recap FOMC Minutes

2006-10-26T11:01:00.000+08:00

SG 261006 1200H

It is a rather dissappointing to know that FED is not going to take any action strategy to battle the current economic situation, core price inflation in USD. For the third meeting in a row, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent. This is definitely not what most traders around the world are looking forwards to.

Less hawkish tone of "Going forward the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace" and "possibility of a rate cut early next year" has results in a weaker USD and lower yields.

I missed all this action, as I can't get up at around 0215H Singapore time, due to exhaustion in work and study. :(

Not to worry, still some major fundamentals as follows to gear USD:

06:10 GMT Germany ! Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
12:30 GMT United States !! Durable Goods Orders
14:00 GMT United States !! New Home Sales

How i wish that Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) and Commitment of traders (COT) report are out everyday so that i can position myself well. :D

FOMC Minutes

2006-10-25T13:24:00.000+08:00

Today 25/10/06 will be a great, as we have fundamentals as below:
08:00 GMT Germany !! IFO Business Climate
13:00 GMT Germany ! Consumer Price Index (MoM)
14:30 GMT United States ! Crude Oil Inventories
18:15 GMT United States !!! FOMC Policy Announcement
20:00 GMT New Zealand ! RBNZ Official Cash Rate

A short recap on the fundamental that happened:
New Zealand CPI came out slightly worse than expected, 0.7% vs 0.8% expected
Australian CPI came out better than expected, 3.9% vs 3.7% expected

Forex Trading Ideas

2006-10-23T12:45:00.000+08:00

Week of Oct 23 is full of exotic trades mainly NZ, Australia and Japan. Due to busy schedule for this week, trade for this week are as follow:
Buy GBPUSD at 1.8740 SL 1.8730 TP 1.8900
Buy USDCAD at 1.1200 SL 1.1190 TP 1.1260